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来自 集团财经 2019-10-30 18:54 的文章
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EM TODAY

OPEC and its partners are expected to announce an extension of production cuts today. Theconsensus view is for producers to agree on a 9-month extension of output caps to end-2018.

    Turning to Asia, this morning the Bank of Korea held its MPC meeting, which resulted in a dovishhike as we had expected. The accompanying policy statement outlined a more cautious outlook;BoK Governor Lee highlighted inflation and growth as the main factors to be taken intoconsideration for the following policy meetings. Rates rallied and KRW sold off in sympathy withthe dovish tone. Moreover, the KRW was weakened further by the BoK signalling that it will nottolerate rapid pace of appreciation in the KRW. In the short term, we expect the KRW to weakenfurther, but maintain our medium term stance that USDKRW will fall to 1050 over the next 6m-12m. We had taken profit on our buy KRW position funded by a basket of currencies yesterday witha carry adjusted profit of about 2.6% ahead of the BoK meeting (see Wonder Won). India Q3 GDPdata released today could also be significant. Q2 data were much weaker than expected, andtriggered some weakness in the rupee. Most analysts expect year on year real growth to recoverfrom 5.7% in Q2 to 6.4% in Q3.

    While speculative positioning in oil is at record levels according to the latest available data(Figures 1 and 2), we think the risk of a sharp correction (as occurred in March, after positioningpeaked at similar levels) is lower. Oil has produced steady positive returns over the past fewmonths, so investors are less likely to be forced to unwind their positions as in March, when oilreturns were flat prior to the sell-off.

    In CEEMEA, on the data front, Polish CPI for November is forecast to show a slight uptick to 2.2%y/y from 2.1% in October. In Turkey, the CBRT will release weekly portfolio flow data for the weekending 24 November. Preliminary data suggests that offshore investors increased their bondportfolio by USD 0.3bn, while locals added USD 0.9bn to their FX deposits. The Turkish tradedeficit increased by around USD 3bn y/y to USD 7.3bn, broadly in line with expectations.

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